What does America First mean for global markets in 2025? Our Global Focus – Economist Outlook 2025, titled ‘Reverberations’, examines the outlook for global growth, FX and rates against seismic geopolitical shifts brought by the US presidential transition.
We expect global economic growth to be broadly flat in 2025, slowing slightly to 3.1% from 3.2% in 2024. While US growth is expected to moderate somewhat, the economy remains healthy and will continue to outperform Europe. Europe’s economy remains anaemic and risks slipping into recession if the US imposes tariffs on its exports. We expect China’s economy to grow 4.5% in 2025 and despite some pressure on the energy sector, we expect the GCC to remain a bright spot for global growth in 2025, with the region’s non-oil growth exceeding overall global economic growth.
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